mrb's blog

1 Bitcoin = 1000 US dollars

Keywords: bitcoin

In the last hour, around November 19 00:30 UTC, the value of a single Bitcoin on the world's largest Bitcoin exchange, BTCChina, rose to 1,000 US dollars (USD), or 6092.00 Chinese yuan (CNY).

Let me repeat this: 1 bitcoin is worth $1,000.

As I write these words, the exchange rate is about ¥6900 or $1100 and continues to increase. Other exchanges are a bit behind ($900 for MtGox and $750 on Coinbase), but arbitrage is taking place, so they should reach that level within the next few hours, assuming no crash.

I have been telling people since 2010 that Bitcoin is a revolutionary technology: the world's first decentralized, censorship-resistant, inflation-resistant, digital currency. With an overwhelming positive tone from today's first US senate hearing on virtual currencies and Bitcoin in particular, Bitcoin's future has never before been so promising.

I personally value a system like Bitcoin to at the very least the size of the remittance market (Western Union, MoneyGram, etc), or the size of the gold market. And possibly a lot more than that. This lower bound sets the worth of Bitcoin to very roughly $100 to $1,000 billion. With a maximum theoretical limit of 21 million bitcoins, this sets the worth of 1 bitcoin to $5,000 to $50,000. Bitcoin will remain very volatile in the near future. Sure a crash that would bring it back down to below $1,000 is possible or likely, but it would not change its long-term prospect, a few years from now, from being valued between $5,000 and $50,000 and possibly more.

Comments

dabdine wrote: Possibly a percentage of the remittance market. I think it'll still be a fraction though, because wells fargo and others like it make it dead simple, even for those without computers to send & receive funds. Looking at sites like reddit to gauge adoption it looks like more and more online retailers and online services are adopting btc, so I can see it capturing a portion of online spend (including online retail) too -- which looks to be somewhere around $50b itself. Hell, Virgin Galactic just started accepting btc for flights, so I suppose nothing is off limits anymore. It really does seem to be taking off. I also think it'll be key for btc to become more "user friendly" as far as inputs/outputs go. IMHO, it's still far away for the average joe/layperson to understand and get involved. 30 Nov 2013 03:44 UTC

mrb wrote: Absolutely, there is still a lot of work needed to make Bitcoin more easily usable for average Joe. This work (infrastructure, hardware wallets, etc) is progressing bit by bit every day... :) 30 Nov 2013 04:58 UTC